by Douglas Gould on February 29, 2008
Regular readers will remember that I contend that our industry is somewhat resistant to a slowing economy or recessionary pressures. This is based on my observation that during an economic slowdown, the diehard boaters continue to go boating, but skimp on their maintenance spending, which leads to a higher percentage of the active boaters breaking down and needing our service. During the boom times, an increase in boating traffic should increase demand for assistance, because a certain percentage of boats are gonna need a tow, regardless of the age of the fleet or how well maintained that fleet is.
But, that doesn’t mean we just ignore the signals, or toss all caution to the wind. This week’s news contains two signals that suggest that this might be a good year to defer large capital investments like a new boat, especially if you’re spending money based on future cash flow.
Item 1: Mercury Marine takes a week off.
Item 2: SeaRay will cut some jobs based on a slumping demand for boats.
Its not all bad news out there, but these are two of the biggest players in the recreational market, and they are reacting to market demands. Furthermore, these two companies are part of huge corporations who have fulltime finanical gurus on their staffs who do nothing but predict demands for their products. When SeaRay forcasts a slumping demand, you need to take notice.
We certainly know that the price of oil will be higher this summer than it is now, and everyone sort of expects $4/gal at the fuel docks, if not higher.
There is nothing wrong with taking a year to “hunker down” and practice fiscal restraint for your business. In fact, a really healthy business plan will include strategies for adapting to the fluctuations of the market. Perhaps this year will be your chance to hone those strategies?
by Douglas Gould on February 22, 2008
A friend in California sent me this newspaper story about the proposed changes in the seatime for a Master of Towing License. If you are interested, here is the text from the Federal Register [click here to read it all]
(3) Alternate progression: This proposed rule would add a new paragraph to 46 CFR 10.465 that would allow a master of steam or motor vessels of not more than 200 GRT to become a mate (pilot) of towing vessels under certain conditions. The paragraph would provide that the master of steam or motor vessels of not more than 200 GRT would need three years of service as Master of steam or motor vessels less than 200 GRT, completion of a Towing Officer Assessment Record, completion of the towing vessel license (apprentice mate) exam, and 30 days of training and observation on a towing vessel on the route being sought. In addition, the current regulatory language in 10.464(f) and 10.465(d) tries to describe a certain type of license, rather than using the actual endorsement title, which is unnecessarily confusing. This proposedrule would replace the descriptive terms ‘‘inspected, self-propelled vessels’’ with the actual endorsement title ‘‘master of steam or motor
vessels’’.
As far as I can tell, this would mean many of use could get a Mate of Towing, not a Master of Towing, with as little as 30 days in the wheelhouse. Did I read it wrong? I guess I don’t see what all the fuss is about. I suppose that this change would mean that a guy with only 30 days in the wheelhouse would be eligable to stand a wheel watch, all by himself. But, in my opinion, the real change that occured after the Amtrack accident was the radar endorsement requirement, not the days behind the wheel of a tug boat. Nothing in the proposed change would alter that, or any of the other training requirements put in place since that railroad accident.
